The spring 2026 real estate market on Southern Vancouver Island is wide open — more inventory than we've seen in over a decade, and buyers holding the cards. Here's what the numbers mean for your neighbourhood.

The Inventory Shift That Changes Everything

Something meaningful happened in the Greater Victoria market this spring, and it's been building all year. At the end of May 2026, there were 4,029 active listings on the Victoria Real Estate Board MLS® — the highest inventory level in eleven years. That's an 8.6 percent jump from April alone, and 8.4 percent more than we saw at the same time last year.

When VREB Chair Fergus Kyne says "there's no more waiting — the spring market is here," he's not just talking about warmer weather. He's talking about a market that has fundamentally shifted in favour of buyers. More choice. More time to make decisions. More room to negotiate.

That's a big deal on an island where, not long ago, buyers were waiving subjects and writing offers the same afternoon they walked through the door.

What Sold in May — and What Didn't

Total sales across the VREB region came in at 713 properties in May 2026 — a healthy bump of 10.9 percent over April, but still 5.9 percent below May 2025. Spring momentum is real, but the year-over-year gap tells you buyers are being deliberate.

Breaking it down by property type:

Single-family homes led volume with 385 sales, down 4 percent from a year ago. The MLS® HPI benchmark price for a single-family home in the Victoria Core sits at $1,339,000 — essentially flat, up just 0.3 percent year over year and barely changed from April's $1,339,100. The market is holding value, but it's not running.

Condominiums saw the sharpest year-over-year sales decline, at -14.9 percent, with 188 units sold. Benchmark condo prices in the Victoria Core dropped 1.9 percent from a year ago to $551,400 — down from $558,300 in April. Condo sellers are feeling more pressure than any other segment right now.

Townhomes were the bright spot. 98 sold in May, up 8.9 percent from May 2025. The townhouse benchmark in the Core held at $836,800 — down slightly from April but resilient relative to the rest of the market. Townhomes continue to attract buyers who want more space than a condo but aren't quite ready to stretch to a detached home price.

A Closer Look — Victoria Core vs. Westshore vs. Peninsula

The VREB data breaks down benchmark prices by sub-market, and the variation is worth paying attention to.

For single-family homes:

The Victoria Core benchmark sits at $1,339,000 (essentially flat year-over-year). The Westshore — covering Langford, Colwood, View Royal and area — has softened more noticeably, with its benchmark at $1,028,100, down 2.8 percent from May 2025. The Peninsula (Saanich, North Saanich, Sidney) is the standout, rising 4.3 percent year over year to $1,292,000.

For condos, the picture is broadly softer across all zones, with the Westshore condo benchmark at $508,300 (down 1.1% year over year) and the Core at $551,400 (down 1.9%).

What the Sales-to-Active-Listings Ratio Tells Us

The sales-to-active-listings ratio — one of the clearest signals of market pressure — is sitting in the 17–28 percent range, which BCREA defines as a balanced market. Technically, neither buyers nor sellers has a strong edge in pricing pressure. But with inventory at eleven-year highs, buyers have practical advantages that the ratio alone doesn't fully capture: time, selection, and leverage on negotiation.

Sellers who understand this are pricing accordingly and getting deals done. Those who are anchoring to 2022 or 2023 values are watching their listings sit.

Vancouver Island Beyond Victoria — The VIREB Picture

For those of us with roots or eyes on communities north of the Malahat, the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB) numbers tell a complementary story.

VIREB recorded 768 unit sales across all property types in May 2026 — down just one per cent from a year ago. That's relative stability across a broad geography. Active listings board-wide were 4,585, up three per cent year over year.

In the Cowichan Valley, the single-family benchmark came in at $789,800 — essentially holding from May 2025, one of the more stable sub-markets on the Island. Townhouse sales across the VIREB area were a standout, up 33 percent year over year.

VIREB CEO Jason Yochim captured the mood well: the market is seeing activity on well-priced properties, including multiple-offer situations in some cases, while homes above market expectations are taking longer to sell. Buyers are measured. Sellers need to be realistic.

The Bottom Line for Southern Vancouver Island Buyers and Sellers This Spring

If you're buying, this is one of the better-positioned markets on Southern Vancouver Island in recent memory. Inventory is high, competition has eased, and there's room to be strategic.

If you're selling, the fundamentals are still sound — but presentation and pricing matter more than they have in years. As Chair Kyne put it, motivated sellers need to enter the market with competitive pricing and a clear-eyed understanding of what their property is worth right now, not two years ago.

The spring market is here. It just requires a different playbook than the one a lot of people remember.

Mike Doughty is a REALTOR® with RE/MAX Camosun serving Greater Victoria, the Westshore, Sooke, and the Cowichan Valley. For a conversation about what May's numbers mean for your specific situation, reach out directly.

📞 778-400-0475 | ✉️ mike@mikedoughty.ca | 🌐 www.southislandliving.ca

Data sources: Victoria Real Estate Board (VREB) May 2026 Statistics Package; Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB) May 2026 Monthly Statistics Package. MLS® HPI benchmark prices reflect data from the Victoria Core and VIREB board area.

The headlines sound cautious — but look closer and there are reasons for measured optimism, especially here on Southern Vancouver Island.

Spring is traditionally when the real estate market finds its rhythm on the South Island. More listings, more buyers out walking open houses, longer evenings that make every neighbourhood look its best. April 2026 brought all of that — and also a provincial data release from the BC Real Estate Association that's worth unpacking, because the context matters as much as the numbers.

The Provincial Picture

Across BC, 6,311 residential sales were recorded on MLS® systems in April 2026 — down 1.9% from April 2025 but notably higher than March's pace. The average residential price province-wide came in at $952,768, up 0.8% from $944,796 a year ago — a rare positive sign after months of year-over-year price softening. Total sales dollar volume reached $6.01 billion, down just 1.1% year over year. BC sales still sit about 25% below the ten-year average for April, reflecting how far activity has pulled back from the frenzied years of the early 2020s.

BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson acknowledged the persistent headwinds: "Challenges in the local economy and labour market, combined with upward pressure on rates due to the ongoing oil supply shock, are continuing to suppress pent-up demand and weaken overall market activity." But he also offered something that's been in short supply lately — a note of cautious optimism: "Modest monthly gains (seasonally adjusted) in some regions hopefully depict the beginning of a broader stabilization in housing activity, underpinned by improved affordability conditions that should encourage prospective buyers to enter the market."

Year-to-date through the end of April, provincial sales dollar volume is down 9.5% to $18.7 billion. Unit sales are off 7.6% at 20,059, and the average price is down 2% to $932,492 compared to the same stretch last year.

Victoria and Vancouver Island: Still Holding Their Own

Here on the South Island, the numbers offer a more encouraging read than many other BC markets.

The Victoria Real Estate Board recorded 620 sales in April at an average price of $1,043,987. That's a 1.6% dip in price year-over-year — modest by any measure — while sales were actually up 2.3% compared to April 2025. Active listings grew 7% to 2,948, giving buyers meaningfully more choice than they had a year ago. The sales-to-active-listings ratio came in at 21%, placing Victoria firmly in balanced-to-seller territory.

Year-to-date, the Victoria board's average price is $1,030,030 — up 2.6% from the same period in 2025. That's one of the strongest year-to-date price performances in the province.

The broader Vancouver Island board — covering the Cowichan Valley, Nanaimo, and communities to the north — recorded 659 sales at an average price of $762,994, up 1.9% year-over-year. The sales count was down 13.4%, and active listings grew 6.6%, pointing to a more balanced market dynamic in those communities.

What the Oil Shock and Rate Environment Mean for Buyers

The BCREA's chart this month highlighted something worth understanding: upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates driven by the ongoing Iran conflict and the resulting oil supply disruption. Five-year Government of Canada bond yields — the benchmark that fixed mortgage rates follow — have climbed noticeably since the conflict began, adding cost to anyone locking in for the medium term.

This is one reason why variable-rate products have attracted renewed attention, with the Bank of Canada holding its overnight rate at 2.25% as of late April. For buyers watching their qualifying numbers closely, the choice of mortgage product is more meaningful than usual right now. A conversation with a mortgage professional before you start seriously shopping is time well spent.

The Takeaway for South Island Residents

The market here isn't in freefall — far from it. Victoria's year-to-date price appreciation is among the best in BC, and the sales-to-active ratio suggests demand is real, even if it's measured. More inventory means buyers have actual choice, something that was essentially absent in 2021 and 2022. And the pent-up demand Ogmundson references is genuine — there are people who've been watching and waiting for conditions to stabilize.

Whether you're thinking about upsizing, downsizing, or making a first move onto the Island, the fundamentals that make Southern Vancouver Island desirable haven't shifted. The geography, the lifestyle, the community — those don't appear on a data table, but they absolutely show up in long-term demand.

Questions about what this means for your neighbourhood or situation? I'm always happy to chat — no pressure, just good information.

Mike Doughty | RE/MAX Camosun 📞 778-400-0475 | ✉️ mike@mikedoughty.ca | 🌐 www.southislandliving.ca

The Greater Victoria and Vancouver Island real estate markets are holding steady this spring. Here's what the April 2026 numbers mean for buyers and sellers on the South Island.

The Numbers Are In — and the Island Is Holding Steady

April's real estate data is out for both Greater Victoria (VREB) and Vancouver Island (VIREB), and the headline is about as reassuring as a sunny April weekend on the water: the South Island market is balanced, active, and moving into the spring season with a healthy amount of choice on both sides of the fence.

Whether you're thinking about making a move this season or just keeping an eye on things, here's a plain-language breakdown of what the April numbers are telling us.

Greater Victoria (VREB) — Goldilocks Conditions in the Capital Region

A total of 643 properties sold across the Greater Victoria region in April 2026 — essentially flat year over year (up just 0.2%) but up 11.1% from March, which signals the spring market is picking up momentum right on schedule.

Single family home sales came in at 331, down slightly from April 2025 (-1.2%), while condo sales ticked up 5.9% year over year to 198 units. Townhomes saw 78 sales, down modestly from last year.

The inventory picture is encouraging for buyers: active listings reached 3,710 at month-end, up 13.8% from March and 8.3% higher than April 2025. More supply means more options, more negotiating room, and less of the frantic pace that characterized the market a few years back.

On pricing, the MLS® HPI benchmark for a single family home in the Victoria Core came in at $1,339,100 — down 1.2% from a year ago but up from March's $1,330,200, suggesting a gentle firming as spring arrives. Condo benchmarks in the Core sit at $558,300, and townhomes in the Core are benchmarked at $840,100.

VREB Chair Fergus Kyne put it well: the market right now has choice, range in price points, and brisk buyer interest — without the pressure-cooker feeling of a hot seller's market.

Victoria Core HPI Benchmarks — April 2026

• Single Family: $1,339,100

• Condo Apartment: $558,300

• Row/Townhouse: $840,100

Vancouver Island (VIREB) — Spring Stirring Across the Island

The broader Vancouver Island board (VIREB) covers a wide swath of the Island from the Malahat north, including the Cowichan Valley — a market I work in regularly and watch closely.

VIREB recorded 683 total unit sales in April 2026, down 12% year over year across all property types, though single family home sales rose a solid 23% from March to 372 units — a clear sign that buyers re-engaged as spring arrived. Row/townhouse sales were up 24% month over month as well, at 88 units.

Active listings board-wide stood at 4,256 (all property types), up 4% from April 2025, continuing the trend of healthy inventory levels that give buyers real options.

VIREB CEO Jason Yochim noted that while the spring start was a little slow, activity picked up meaningfully in the latter half of April — and that momentum could translate into a busier May.

Cowichan Valley Benchmarks — April 2026

• Single Family: $784,000 (up 1% year over year; up 2.4% from March)

• Condo Apartment: $301,500

• Townhouse: $498,400

The Cowichan Valley's single family benchmark is sitting right around where it was a year ago, with a modest uptick suggesting stable demand. It continues to represent solid relative value compared to Victoria Core prices, which is a story worth paying attention to for buyers priced out of the capital region.

Board-Wide VIREB Single Family Benchmarks — April 2026

• Vancouver Island (board-wide): $790,300

• Cowichan Valley: $784,000

• Comox Valley: $869,800

• Nanaimo: $815,600

• Parksville/Qualicum: $923,800

• Campbell River: $687,800

• Port Alberni: $505,800

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers on the South Island

The current market isn't the frenzied sellers' market of 2021-22, nor is it a deep buyers' market. It's genuinely balanced — and that's actually a good place to be.

For buyers, inventory is up, competition is measured, and there are real opportunities across price points — from entry-level condos in Langford and Colwood to family homes in the Cowichan Valley.

For sellers, properly priced homes are still moving. The spring season typically brings a wave of new buyers into the market, and with listings up and interest rates having eased from their peaks, there's a reasonable pool of qualified buyers actively looking.

If you're thinking about a move this spring — whether buying, selling, or both — it's a solid time to get a clear picture of what your options look like.

Stay Connected to the South Island Market

I publish monthly market updates for Greater Victoria, the Westshore, and the Cowichan Valley, broken down in plain language so you can actually use the information. [Internal link: Market Updates archive]

Questions about what these numbers mean for your specific situation? I'm always happy to chat.

Mike Doughty | REALTOR® | RE/MAX Camosun 778-400-0475 | mike@mikedoughty.ca

April 29, 2026

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on April 29, 2026. Here's what that means for mortgage rates, housing affordability, and the real estate market on Southern Vancouver Island.

This morning, the Bank of Canada made its third rate announcement of 2026, and the decision was exactly what most economists had anticipated: hold steady at 2.25%.

For the fourth consecutive time, Governor Tiff Macklem and Governing Council resisted the urge to move in either direction. It's a "wait and see" posture, and given what's happening in the world right now, it's hard to argue with the logic.

So what's going on?

Two big forces are pulling the Canadian economy in opposite directions right now, and the Bank is caught in the middle.

On the one hand, the Canadian labour market is soft. Employment growth has been subdued over the past year, job losses have hit sectors affected by U.S. tariffs, and the unemployment rate is sitting in the 6.5–7% range. Under normal conditions, that kind of labour market weakness would be a clear signal that rate cuts should be on the table. Bank of Canada

On the other hand, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has sent oil prices sharply higher. The Iran war has led to sharply higher energy prices and transportation disruptions, reducing growth prospects in oil-importing countries and pushing inflation higher worldwide. Bank of Canada

Here's the Canadian twist: higher oil prices are actually a mixed story for us. Canada is an oil exporter, which means higher prices benefit our energy sector even as they hurt consumers at the pump. The Bank noted that these two effects largely cancel each other out, leaving the overall Canadian growth outlook relatively unchanged from earlier this year.

On the inflation front, CPI jumped to 2.4% in March, with forecasts that it will rise to approximately 3% in April due to higher gasoline prices. The Bank expects the spike to be temporary, based on the assumption that oil prices will ease, and inflation is forecast to return to the 2% target early next year. StlawyersBank of Canada

The uncomfortable trade-off

Any central banker will tell you that supply shocks — where prices rise not because of strong demand but because of a disruption to supply — are the hardest situations to navigate. Raise rates, and you risk crushing an already-struggling economy. Do nothing, and you risk higher energy costs feeding into broader price expectations and becoming entrenched.

The Bank's COVID experience looms large here. Its delayed response to rising inflation during 2021–2022 is still fresh in many minds, a reminder that waiting too long can be more costly than acting early. This time around, the Bank appears to be threading the needle: looking through the war's immediate impact on inflation while clearly stating it will not let higher energy prices become persistent inflation. Bank of Canada

TD Economics' outlook is that the Bank of Canada will hold its rate for the duration of 2026 — a view shared by many other economists. Rate cuts remain more likely than hikes, according to several analysts, unless the conflict escalates further and energy prices stay elevated long enough to push core inflation meaningfully higher. TD

What does this mean on Southern Vancouver Island?

The hold is neither exciting nor alarming — and for the South Island market, that's actually okay.

Variable mortgage and HELOC rates will stay where they are. Fixed rates continue to be driven by bond markets, and those have been volatile. If you're holding a variable rate, nothing changes today. If you've been watching from the sidelines, waiting for rates to drop further, the Bank's message is clear: patience is still required. CMP

The South Island market has been navigating its own version of these crosscurrents. Affordability remains a challenge. Housing activity has been held back by slow population growth, economic uncertainty, and ongoing affordability issues. But motivated buyers and sellers are still transacting — and in a market with limited inventory, well-priced properties continue to move. BNN Bloomberg

The next rate announcement is scheduled for June 10, 2026. Between now and then, the Bank will be watching oil prices closely, tracking whether energy costs are bleeding into the prices of other goods and services, and monitoring how the broader Canadian economy is absorbing the dual pressures of tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty.

Whatever happens, I'll be here to help you make sense of it.

Have questions about what today's decision means for your buying or selling plans on the South Island? Feel free to reach out — I'm always happy to talk it through.

📞 778-400-0475 | mike@mikedoughty.ca | [southislandliving.ca]

Provincial stats paint a cautious picture — but here on Southern Vancouver Island, the story has some important nuance.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association released its March 2026 provincial market numbers this week, and if you've been following along with the broader economic headlines — tariff uncertainty, global trade tensions, mortgage rate pressure — the data won't come as much of a surprise. But as always, provincial averages tell only part of the story. If you're living on, or thinking about moving to, Southern Vancouver Island, there's context worth understanding.

The Provincial Picture

Across BC, 5,766 residential sales were recorded on MLS® systems in March 2026 — down 3.6% from March 2025. The average residential price province-wide came in at $939,846, a 2% dip from the $959,236 recorded a year ago. Total sales dollar volume reached $4.21 billion, down 5.6% year-over-year, and BC sales are sitting about 34.5% below the ten-year average for March.

BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson put it plainly: "Global conflict leading to rising mortgage rates paired with a sluggish economy are presenting a challenge for a housing market recovery. Improved affordability and pent-up demand should translate to an acceleration of activity, though the market will need a period of relative calm for households to build confidence."

Year-to-date through the end of March, provincial sales dollar volume is down 13% to $12.7 billion, with unit sales off 11% at 13,595 and the average price down 2.2% to $933,859 compared to the same stretch in 2025.

How Vancouver Island and Victoria Compare

Here's where it gets interesting for South Island residents.

The Vancouver Island board — which covers communities from the Cowichan Valley north — recorded 606 sales in March at an average price of $769,396, down just 1.3% in price year-over-year and essentially flat on sales volume (-0.7%). Active listings did tick up 3.5%, giving buyers a bit more to work with than they've had in recent years.

Victoria, our own backyard, actually bucked the provincial trend on price. The Victoria board recorded 550 sales at an average price of $1,027,854 — a 4% increase over March 2025. Sales-to-active listings came in at 21.6%, which still reflects a reasonably balanced-to-seller leaning market despite slower overall activity. Active listings grew 7.4%, which signals a gradual normalization of inventory.

What This Means If You're Thinking About a Move

For buyers: more inventory and modest price softening in many BC markets — including parts of our region — means there's room to make thoughtful decisions without the frantic pace of previous years. That's not a bad thing.

For sellers: the Victoria market, in particular, is holding its value better than most of the province. Pricing your home accurately and presenting it well still matters enormously, but the fundamentals here remain solid compared to many other BC communities.

For those on the fence: the BCREA's own economist is pointing to pent-up demand and improved affordability as forces that should drive a recovery — once there's a stretch of economic calm to give households the confidence to act.

Life on Southern Vancouver Island doesn't change with every monthly report. The reasons people want to be here — the lifestyle, the communities, the geography — are durable. But understanding the market environment helps you make smarter decisions when the time comes.

Curious what the numbers mean for your specific neighbourhood or situation? Reach out — I'm always happy to chat.

Mike Doughty | RE/MAX Camosun 📞 778-400-0475 | ✉️ mike@mikedoughty.ca | 🌐 www.southislandliving.ca