February 2026 BC real estate stats show a slower market province-wide, but Southern Vancouver Island and Greater Victoria are holding steady. Here's what the numbers mean for buyers and sellers on the South Island.
Market Update | March 2026
If you've been keeping an eye on BC's housing market, you've probably noticed the headlines aren't exactly cheerful. The province-wide numbers for February 2026 tell a story of a market in a bit of a holding pattern — but what's happening at the provincial level and what's happening here on Southern Vancouver Island are two different conversations worth having.
Let's dig in.
The Big Picture: BC's Market Is Quiet
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its February 2026 statistics this week, and the headline numbers reflect a market that's still finding its footing. Across the province, residential sales were down nearly 10% compared to February 2025, with the average home price settling at $932,243 — a drop of about 3% year-over-year. Total sales volume province-wide came in at $4.21 billion, down 12.3% from the same month last year. BC unit sales were also sitting roughly 33% below the 10-year average for February — a notable gap that speaks to how much buyer hesitation has shaped this market cycle.
BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson acknowledged the sluggishness but pointed to a potential upside: improved affordability conditions in many regions, combined with stable interest rates, could be the catalyst that starts pulling more buyers off the sidelines as spring approaches.
Year-to-date, the provincial numbers are even more sobering — residential sales volume down 17.8% and unit sales off 15.8% compared to the first two months of 2025.
But — and this is important — the South Island market is telling a more nuanced story.
The South Island: Holding Its Own
When you break the provincial data down by board, Greater Victoria and Vancouver Island both show year-over-year softness, but they're outperforming some of the harder-hit markets in the province considerably.
The Victoria Real Estate Board (VREB) reported 465 properties sold across the region in February — down 11.9% from February 2025, but a significant 37% jump from January's pace. That month-over-month acceleration is an encouraging sign that buyers are starting to re-engage as we move into spring.
Single family home sales came in at 206 units, down 12% year-over-year, while condo sales saw the biggest dip — 154 units sold, off nearly 20% from a year ago. The condo segment has been the softer part of the market for a while now, and that trend is continuing.
On the Vancouver Island board (which covers areas like the Cowichan Valley and up-island), 443 units sold in February at an average price of $719,111 — down just 1.9% from a year ago. That modest price dip, combined with a sales-to-active-listings ratio of 15.2%, tells us the Island market, while cooler, remains more stable than many parts of the province.
What About Prices?
The MLS® Home Price Index benchmark for a single family home in the Victoria Core came in at $1,307,400 in February — down less than 1% from a year ago, and actually up from January's benchmark of $1,265,500. That's a meaningful month-over-month recovery that suggests the floor is holding.
Condo benchmarks in the Victoria Core landed at $545,600, also down less than 1% year-over-year. Again, relative stability compared to what's happening in many other parts of BC.
Compared to the broader BC average of $932,243, the Victoria board's average of just over $1 million still reflects the premium that comes with living in one of Canada's most desirable regions — but that premium has narrowed slightly, which is genuinely good news for buyers who've been waiting for a better entry point.
What This Means If You're a Buyer
This is arguably the most buyer-friendly market Southern Vancouver Island has seen in a few years. Inventory is up — there were 2,903 active listings across the VREB region at the end of February, a 10.4% increase from a year ago. More choice, more time to make decisions, and more room to negotiate conditions into your offers. If you've been watching from the sidelines waiting for the right moment, spring 2026 is worth a serious look.
What This Means If You're a Seller
The market is balanced — not crashed, not booming. Homes that are priced right and presented well are still moving. The key word there is "priced right." With more inventory available, buyers have options and they know it. Overpriced listings are sitting longer, and the market is rewarding sellers who are realistic about value from day one. If you're thinking about listing this spring, connecting with a local REALTOR® who knows your specific neighbourhood — not just the broad market averages — is more important than ever.
The Bottom Line
BC's housing market is navigating a challenging stretch, no question. But Southern Vancouver Island continues to demonstrate the resilience that makes this region stand out. Prices are stable, inventory is healthy, and the month-over-month momentum heading into spring is encouraging. This isn't a market to fear — it's a market to understand.
If you have questions about what these numbers mean for your specific situation on the South Island, feel free to reach out. I'm always happy to talk real estate.
Mike Doughty | REALTOR® | RE/MAX Camosun 778-400-0475 | mike@mikedoughty.ca | southislandliving.ca