A neighbourhood-by-neighbourhood look at 2026 property taxes across Greater Victoria — from Oak Bay to Sooke — and what the numbers reveal about how each community is investing in its future.

Every July, property tax notices arrive across the capital region, usually followed by a little sticker shock and one familiar question:

Why does someone in the next municipality pay so differently than I do?

The answer is more complicated than simply comparing tax rates. Property tax bills reflect population growth, infrastructure needs, regional services and the priorities each community has set for the years ahead.

Numbers compiled from Greater Victoria’s 13 municipalities, the Capital Regional District, BC Assessment and BC Stats provide an interesting snapshot of the region in 2026. They show that property taxes are not just about dollars and cents — they tell a broader story about how communities are growing, where money is being spent and what local governments are preparing for next.

The Westshore Is Growing Fast — and the Tax Bills Show It

Langford, now home to an estimated 59,669 residents, saw one of the largest property tax increases in the region this year. The average increase was 10.22%, or approximately $270 per household.

Sooke was close behind, with an increase of 10.5%, equal to roughly $186.87 for the average property.

For anyone who spends time on the Westshore, those numbers may not come as a surprise. Rapid population growth brings increased demand for roads, schools, recreation facilities, emergency services and other infrastructure. Those improvements cost money, and eventually some of that cost appears on the property tax notice.

Colwood, however, had a very different result. Its increase was limited to 4.22% — the lowest in the region in 2026 — even though the average assessed home value sits just above $1 million.

That contrast is a good example of why assessed value alone does not determine how much a homeowner’s tax bill will change.

Where the Money Actually Goes

It is easy to assume that the full amount on a property tax notice goes directly to the local municipality. In reality, a substantial portion is collected for regional and provincial services.

These charges can include:

• School taxes, collected on behalf of the Province of British Columbia

• CRD services, including regional parks, water, shared infrastructure and other regional programs

• Capital Regional Hospital District costs, which help fund healthcare infrastructure across the region

• Municipal Finance Authority debt servicing, used to finance major municipal capital projects

Esquimalt homeowners, for example, contribute approximately $1,158.53 toward CRD-related costs. That is more than double the amount paid by the average homeowner in Colwood or Victoria for similar regional services, despite relatively comparable average home values.

It is an important reminder that the municipal portion of your tax bill is only one part of the overall picture. Where you live, which regional services apply and how those costs are distributed can make a significant difference in the final amount.

A Quick Snapshot Across the Region

| Municipality | Avg. Assessed Home | Total Tax Increase |
| Saanich | $1.185M | 5.35% |
| Victoria | $1.045M | 9.34% |
| Langford | $921,375 | 10.22% |
| Colwood | $1.005M | 4.22% |
| Esquimalt | $1.105M | 11.32% |
| Oak Bay | $1.88M | 8.5% |
| Central Saanich | $1.128M | 7.37% |
| Sooke | $792,876 | 10.5% |
| Sidney | $933,005 | 9.37% |
| North Saanich | $1.574M | 5.5% |
| View Royal | $1.095M | 7.05% |
| Metchosin | $1.246M | 9.91% |
| Highlands | $1.278M | 9.5% |

What This Means If You're Watching the Market Property taxes rarely make or break a decision to buy in a particular neighbourhood, but they're a real part of the monthly cost-of-ownership conversation — especially when you're comparing, say, a Sooke acreage to a Saanich bungalow with a similar assessed value but a very different tax bill. If you're curious how a specific municipality's tax trends fit into your own homeownership plans on the South Island, feel free to reach out! mike@mikedoughty.ca

Sources: Compiled from Times Colonist reporting (June 29, 2026), Capital Regional District, BC Assessment, BC Stats, and the 13 Greater Victoria municipalities.

Ever spotted "Exceptions and Reservations — Esquimalt and Nanaimo Railway Company" on your Vancouver Island title and wondered what it means? Here's the real story behind the Island's most common — and most misunderstood — historical land charge. If you own property almost anywhere between Victoria and Campbell River, there’s a decent chance you’ve seen a curious line buried in your title search:

Exceptions and Reservations — Esquimalt and Nanaimo Railway Company, Inter Alia

There’s no dollar figure, no payment deadline and no obvious explanation—just old legal wording connected to a railway company that no longer operates under its original name.

Naturally, this can make property owners wonder: Could someone show up and start digging a mine shaft in the backyard?

Not quite.

The real explanation is a fascinating piece of Vancouver Island history. It is worth understanding whether you already own a home here or are starting to explore the South Vancouver Island real estate market.

The Railway Deal That Shaped Vancouver Island

In the 1880s, the province reached an agreement with coal baron Robert Dunsmuir and the Esquimalt and Nanaimo Railway Company to build a railway between Esquimalt and Nanaimo.

In exchange for constructing the railway, the company received an enormous land grant covering approximately 1.9 million acres—close to one-quarter of Vancouver Island.

The grant extended through large portions of southeastern Vancouver Island, including areas around:

• Greater Victoria and the Westshore

• The Cowichan Valley

• Nanaimo

• Parksville and Qualicum

• The Comox Valley

This was not simply a narrow strip of land running beside the railway tracks. The grant stretched for many kilometres on either side of the railway.

That is why properties in Langford, Sooke, Duncan and other communities far from the current rail corridor can still carry an E&N Railway notation on title.

What Rights Were Reserved?

When portions of the original railway lands were sold, the E&N Railway Company sometimes retained—or reserved—certain rights.

Depending on the wording of the original land grant, these could include:

• The right to enter the land and remove timber for railway purposes

• Rights associated with railway lines, stations and workshops

• Rights to coal, minerals and other resources beneath the surface

• Rights of entry connected to accessing those resources

Those historical rights are what the “Exceptions and Reservations” notation represents.

The exact wording can vary from one original grant to another, so not every property is necessarily affected in exactly the same way.

What Does “Inter Alia” Mean?

Inter alia is Latin for “among other things.”

In land-title practice, it generally refers to the original document affecting the property, along with other lands.

Your modern residential lot may have started as one small piece of a much larger parcel that was subdivided many times over the past century.

In other words, your property is one tiny piece of a much bigger historical puzzle.

Is the E&N Charge an Easement?

Not exactly—and the distinction matters.

An easement usually provides a clearly defined right to use part of another property, such as:

• A shared driveway

• A utility line

• Access over a neighbouring parcel

The E&N reservation is broader and more unusual.

In some cases, it represents a separation of ownership rights. A homeowner may own the surface of the land while certain mineral or resource rights were historically retained by another party.

That sounds dramatic, but for most established residential properties it has very little practical effect.

What Is Registration Number M76300?

Many Vancouver Island titles show the reference number M76300 beside the E&N Railway notation.

M76300 is not the original registration number from the 1800s. It is a modern indexing number created when the Land Title Office computerized its records.

It allows these old E&N exceptions and reservations to appear consistently on electronic titles.

That is also why the title may include wording such as:

For actual date and time of registration, see original grant.

The legal rights date back to the original historical grant—not to the date the M76300 reference was added to the computerized system.

Does the E&N Railway Company Still Exist?

The original E&N Railway Company was acquired by Canadian Pacific Railway in 1905.

The railway corridor itself—the land containing the tracks—has been owned by the Island Corridor Foundation since 2003. The Island Corridor Foundation is a non-profit organization involving First Nations and regional governments.

There continues to be discussion about restoring passenger rail service on portions of Vancouver Island, including potential service between Victoria and the Westshore.

However, there is an important distinction:

The railway corridor and the historical land-grant rights are not necessarily the same assets.

When a company is sold, reorganized or dissolved, its property rights do not automatically disappear. Those rights may be:

• Transferred to another company

• Assigned to a successor

• Surrendered or released

• Passed to the Crown

• Left on the title because no one has completed the legal process required to remove them

The title still refers to the Esquimalt and Nanaimo Railway Company because that was the original party named in the grant.

It does not necessarily mean the original railway company—or anyone else—can simply arrive and exercise those rights without first establishing current ownership and legal entitlement.

Should Vancouver Island Homeowners Be Concerned?

For the vast majority of established homes in Greater Victoria, the Westshore, Cowichan Valley and Nanaimo areas, the answer is no.

Real estate lawyers, notaries, lenders, and title insurers regularly see the E&N Railway notation.

It is generally treated as a standard historical title exception and:

• It does not mean money is owed

• It is not a mortgage or lien

• It usually does not prevent financing

• It normally remains on the title when the property is sold

• It rarely has a practical effect on an established residential property

It is one of those title entries that look far more alarming than they usually are.

When Is Further Investigation Recommended?

The E&N notation deserves closer attention when purchasing or developing:

• Large rural properties

• Land directly beside the historical railway corridor

• Vacant development land

• Properties being considered for subdivision

• Land where substantial excavation is planned

• Properties involving mining, quarrying or resource extraction

• Land in areas with known historical coal mining activity

In those situations, a real estate lawyer or notary may recommend reviewing the original grant, historical title documents, surveys and any subsequent releases or transfers.

The notation alone does not tell you exactly who owns every historical right today.

A Historical Fingerprint on Island Real Estate

For most Vancouver Island homeowners, the E&N Railway charge is simply an interesting historical fingerprint on the property title.

It is a reminder that many of our modern neighbourhoods were shaped by a massive 19th-century railway agreement—one that influenced land ownership patterns across southeastern Vancouver Island and continues to appear on property titles more than 130 years later.

So no, an old railway company is probably not coming to dig a coal mine under your barbecue.

But the story behind that mysterious title notation is a pretty remarkable piece of Vancouver Island history.

Have Questions About a Property Title?

Every property is different, and historical title charges can be confusing.

If you are buying or selling a home on Southern Vancouver Island and come across something unfamiliar on the title, I can help explain the general context and connect you with the appropriate lawyer or notary for legal advice.

Mike Doughty, REALTOR®
RE/MAX Camosun
Serving Greater Victoria, the Westshore and the Cowichan Valley
778-400-0475
mike@mikedoughty.ca

When Did a “Starter Home” Become a Million-Dollar Home in Canada?

For generations, the Canadian starter home followed a fairly predictable script: a modest detached house, perhaps a little dated, with a small yard and enough space for a young couple to begin building a life.

It probably needed some paint. The kitchen may have featured an impressive amount of oak cabinetry. And somewhere in the basement, there was almost certainly wood panelling.

It was not supposed to be perfect. It was supposed to be attainable.

Today, that definition is changing quickly. In some of Canada’s most expensive communities, even the lower end of the housing market can approach—or exceed—the million-dollar mark. For many first-time buyers, the traditional detached starter home has been replaced by a condominium, townhouse, duplex, suite-equipped property or a home much farther from the urban core.

So, has the million-dollar starter home officially arrived in Canada?

In certain markets, it certainly has.

What Do We Actually Mean by a “Starter Home”?

There is no official Canadian definition of a starter home.

It is generally understood to mean an entry-level property purchased by someone taking their first step into homeownership. It is usually smaller, less expensive than the typical home in the area and may require some compromise on size, condition, location or property type.

A recent Zillow study in the United States defined a starter home as a property in the lowest third of home values within its market. Using that measurement, Zillow found that 242 American cities had typical starter homes worth at least US$1 million in April 2026—nearly three times as many as before the pandemic.

Canada does not have a directly comparable nationwide database measuring the lowest third of home values in every municipality. However, benchmark prices across the country clearly show the same underlying trend: the bottom rung of the property ladder has moved considerably higher.

In Some Canadian Markets, $1 Million Is No Longer Luxury Pricing

A million-dollar property still sounds luxurious in much of Canada—and in many communities, it absolutely is.

But real estate is intensely local.

In the most expensive parts of Metro Vancouver, Greater Toronto and Southern Vancouver Island, one million dollars may buy an older detached home on a smaller lot, a townhouse in a desirable neighbourhood or a property that requires significant renovations.

Here in Greater Victoria, the benchmark value of a single-family home in the Victoria Core reached approximately $1.34 million in May 2026. By comparison, the benchmark condominium was about $551,000.

That gap tells an important story.

The conventional detached home may now be well outside the starting range for many buyers, but there are still entry points into the market. They simply may not look like the starter homes previous generations purchased.

On central and northern Vancouver Island, prices are generally lower. In May 2026, the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board reported benchmark prices of approximately:

• $791,600 for a single-family home

• $553,200 for a townhouse

• $407,700 for an apartment

Those numbers are still significant, but they demonstrate how much location and property type affect affordability. Moving even an hour or two from a major urban centre—or considering a different style of home—can dramatically change the options available.

The Canadian Starter Home Has Changed

For today’s buyers, a starter home may be:

• A condominium rather than a detached house

• A townhouse with strata fees and shared amenities

• One side of a duplex

• A small home with a secondary suite

• An older property that needs cosmetic updating

• A manufactured home

• A property in a nearby community rather than the buyer’s preferred neighbourhood

• A home purchased jointly with a partner, sibling or family member

None of these choices represents a lesser form of homeownership.

The purpose of a first home is not necessarily to satisfy every long-term wish. It is to provide stable housing, suit the buyer’s current needs and create a manageable path toward the future.

The trouble begins when buyers compare their first purchase with someone else’s third.

Why Has Entry-Level Housing Become So Expensive?

There is no single villain twirling a moustache behind Canada’s housing market. Several factors have collided over many years.

Canada Has Not Built Enough Homes

Canada’s population has grown faster than its housing stock in many regions. CMHC has estimated that housing construction would need to roughly double from recent levels to restore affordability by 2035.

Although rental apartment construction has increased, new ownership housing has not always kept pace—especially the smaller, ground-oriented homes many families want.

Land Is Limited in High-Demand Areas

Markets such as Greater Vancouver and Greater Victoria face physical constraints including oceans, mountains, protected land and established neighbourhoods.

When large numbers of people want to live in places where developable land is limited, the land beneath a home can become more valuable than the building itself.

Construction Has Become More Expensive

Labour, materials, financing, permitting, development charges and building-code requirements all affect the cost of producing new housing.

Even when land is available, it can be difficult to build genuinely inexpensive homes. Developers cannot simply sprinkle some “affordable housing dust” on a project and make the costs disappear.

The Pandemic Reset Prices

Exceptionally low interest rates, changing housing needs and intense buyer demand pushed prices sharply higher during the pandemic.

Although some markets have since softened or stabilized, prices have not returned to their pre-pandemic levels. In many communities, the affordability ladder was permanently raised several rungs.

Incomes Have Not Kept Pace

The challenge is not just that homes became more expensive. It is that household incomes and down-payment savings did not rise at the same speed.

Statistics Canada has found that younger Canadians have lower homeownership rates than previous generations at comparable stages of life. Family assistance is also becoming increasingly important, with approximately one-third of homeowners under 35 having received some form of family support when entering the market.

That creates an uncomfortable divide between buyers who have access to family equity and those who do not.

Does Buying a Starter Home Still Make Sense?

It can—but buying simply because “real estate always goes up” is not a strategy.

A first purchase should make sense within the buyer’s actual life and finances. That means considering:

• How long they are likely to remain in the property

• The monthly mortgage payment

• Property taxes, insurance and utilities

• Strata fees and potential special levies

• Maintenance and repair costs

• Commuting expenses

• Job stability

• Future family or lifestyle plans

A less expensive home with a punishing commute may not truly be affordable. Similarly, a condominium with reasonable payments but a poorly funded strata can become expensive in a hurry.

The purchase price gets most of the attention, but the carrying cost determines whether the home feels comfortable after possession day.

Canadian First-Time Buyer Programs Can Help—but They Do Not Solve Everything

Eligible first-time buyers may be able to use several federal tools.

The First Home Savings Account allows qualifying buyers to contribute up to $8,000 annually, to a lifetime maximum of $40,000. Contributions are generally tax deductible, while qualifying withdrawals can be made tax-free.

The Home Buyers’ Plan also allows eligible buyers to withdraw up to $60,000 from an RRSP toward a qualifying home purchase, subject to repayment rules.

Insured mortgages are now available on qualifying properties priced below $1.5 million, and eligible first-time buyers may have access to a 30-year amortization. This can reduce monthly payments, although stretching the mortgage over a longer period generally increases the total interest paid.

These programs can improve a buyer’s position, but they cannot make an unsuitable property affordable. A tax benefit is useful. Being able to sleep at night is better.

What Buyers Can Do in Today’s Market

First-time buyers still have options, but planning matters more than ever.

Start With the Monthly Budget

Before browsing listings, buyers should understand what payment they can comfortably carry—not merely the maximum amount a lender might approve.

Owning a home should not require cancelling every vacation, hobby and restaurant meal until 2056.

Speak With a Mortgage Professional Early

A strong mortgage broker or lender can explain qualification, insured versus uninsured financing, available programs and how debts or credit affect borrowing power.

Early advice also gives buyers time to improve their financial position before entering the market.

Separate Needs From Preferences

Bedrooms, transportation, pets, accessibility and school requirements may be genuine needs.

Quartz counters, a double garage and an ocean view are excellent—but they may belong on the future-home list.

Compare Property Types

In many markets, the price difference between a condominium, townhouse and detached home can be hundreds of thousands of dollars.

A well-run strata may provide a more realistic and lower-maintenance entry into ownership.

Look Beyond the Headline Price

A home with a legal suite, lower commuting costs or recent major upgrades may offer better overall value than a cheaper property with looming repairs.

Be Willing to Play the Long Game

Some buyers may be better served by continuing to rent while building an FHSA, reducing debt and improving income stability.

Buying later with a stronger financial foundation is not failure. It is considerably better than buying too soon and becoming house-poor.

The Bottom Line

The million-dollar starter home is not the norm across Canada.

In many parts of the country, buyers can still find detached homes well below that figure. But in Canada’s most expensive urban and coastal communities, the idea is no longer far-fetched. In some neighbourhoods, one million dollars buys an ordinary home rather than an exceptional one.

That does not mean first-time buyers should give up.

It means the path into homeownership has changed.

Today’s successful first-time buyer may begin with a condo, buy in a neighbouring community, renovate gradually or choose a property with rental income. The first home may not be the dream home—but it can still be a smart, comfortable and valuable first chapter.

The key is understanding the local market, looking beyond the national headlines and building a strategy around your real budget and priorities.

Because in real estate, “average” Canadian prices are interesting—but none of us actually buys the average Canadian house.

Canada's luxury real estate market is moving past Toronto and Vancouver. Here's why the South Island has been ahead of this shift the whole time.

For a long time, "luxury real estate in Canada" basically meant two postal codes: Toronto and Vancouver. If you wanted a serious estate property or a showpiece waterfront home, that's where the money — and the headlines — went.

That's no longer the whole story.

The Big Cities Aren't the Whole Story Anymore

RE/MAX Canada's newly released 2026 Spotlight on Luxury Report shows something pretty striking happening underneath the surface of the national market. While Toronto and Vancouver's high-end segments are cooling — luxury sales activity down close to 17% and 20% year-over-year, respectively — smaller and mid-sized markets are surging. Edmonton led the country with luxury sales up nearly 50%. Saskatoon, Ottawa, and Calgary all posted strong double-digit gains too.

The report's take is pretty simple: high-net-worth buyers in the traditional hubs are being more cautious right now, while buyers in regions with strong local economies and room to grow are moving with confidence.

What "Luxury" Actually Means Now

Here's the part that really caught our eye. The definition of luxury itself is shifting. It's less about sheer square footage and more about how a property actually makes you live.

Today's high-end buyers are chasing:

• Waterfront and estate settings — privacy and a real connection to nature

• Walkability — high-end convenience inside a tight-knit community, not a sprawling subdivision

• Intentional design — homes that genuinely support remote work, wellness, and day-to-day life, not just a great photo for the listing

Sound like anywhere you know?

That's Kind of the South Island's Whole Thing

We'll be honest — this "new" definition of luxury isn't new to us at all. It's just describing what the South Island has quietly offered for decades.

Oak Bay's character homes, walkable streets, and ocean views. North Saanich's deep-water moorage properties tucked into the trees. Acreages in the Cowichan Valley with room to breathe and a view of the vineyards instead of the neighbour's fence. Sooke's wild, unfiltered coastline. Even Shawnigan Lake, where my own family's spent more weekends on the water than I can count — that's six generations of calling this Island home, and the appeal hasn't changed: this place was built for the kind of living people are now paying a premium for everywhere else.

What's Actually Happening Here Right Now

The South Island isn't immune to broader market shifts, but the local picture has some genuinely good news for buyers exploring the upper end of the market this spring:

• Oak Bay continues to see limited inventory, which is keeping pricing well-supported — well-presented heritage homes are still attracting multiple offers.

• North Saanich has seen a meaningful uptick in new waterfront listings this spring, giving buyers looking for deep-water moorage more genuine choice than they've had in the last few years.

• Across Greater Victoria more broadly, inventory is sitting at its highest level in over a decade, which means more time, more selection, and more room to negotiate — even at higher price points.

The Takeaway for South Island Buyers and Sellers

The national story is one of decentralization — luxury moving toward places with lifestyle, livability, and value. The South Island has been living that story all along. Whether you're dreaming about a waterfront property in North Saanich, an estate acreage in the Cowichan Valley, or simply curious what your Oak Bay character home might be worth in today's market, this is a genuinely interesting moment to take a closer look.

Curious what this shift looks like for your specific neighbourhood? Reach out anytime — happy to talk it through, no pressure.

BC's housing market cooled further in May 2026 as rising mortgage rates and a soft economy weighed on sales province-wide. Here's what the BCREA numbers mean for Southern Vancouver Island.

BC's Housing Market Cools Again in May 2026 — Here's What It Means Closer to Home

If you've been keeping half an eye on the housing market this spring, you've probably noticed the word "soft" coming up a lot. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its May 2026 numbers this week, and they confirm what a lot of us have been feeling on the ground: buyers are still out there, but they're cautious, and rising mortgage rates are doing a lot of the talking.

Let's break down what happened province-wide, and then bring it back to what it actually means here on the South Island.

The Province-Wide Picture

Across British Columbia, 6,790 residential units sold through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in May 2026, down 2 per cent from the same month last year. The average residential price came in at $945,878, off 1.4 per cent from $959,216 in May 2025.

Total dollar volume across the province was $6.42 billion, down 3.4 per cent year-over-year, and — maybe the most telling stat of all — BC's MLS® unit sales were a full 26.39 per cent below the ten-year average for the month of May.

BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson put it plainly, pointing to rising mortgage rates and a softening labour market as the main forces holding activity back, especially in the Lower Mainland. The recent uptick in rates, he noted, is an unexpected headwind that could push a broader recovery further down the road.

Zooming out to the year-to-date picture doesn't paint a rosier story: BC's residential sales dollar volume is down 8 per cent so far in 2026, sitting at $25.1 billion, with unit sales down 6.9 per cent at 26,681 transactions and the average price down 1.2 per cent to $941,883.

How Vancouver Island Compares

Here's where it gets a little more interesting for those of us on this side of the water. Vancouver Island as a region held up relatively well by provincial standards. The average residential price was $768,621 in May, essentially flat year-over-year (down just 0.4 per cent), and unit sales of 749 were down only 1.1 per cent — a much gentler dip than the provincial average.

Victoria told a slightly different story: 691 units sold, down 5.3 per cent from last May, but the average price actually climbed 3.5 per cent to $1,051,018. Active listings in Victoria were up 6.6 per cent year-over-year, giving buyers more room to shop and compare than they've had in a while.

Taken together, it's a market that's adjusting rather than retreating. Inventory is building, price growth has slowed (or reversed slightly, depending on where you look), and the frantic pace of a few years back has given way to something more measured.

Why Mortgage Rates Are the Story Right Now

It's tempting to chalk this slowdown up to "the economy" in a general sense, but the more specific driver is borrowing costs. As rates have ticked upward this year, the math on monthly payments has changed for a lot of households, and that's translated directly into fewer transactions — even in markets, like ours, where prices have stayed comparatively stable.

It's also worth remembering that mortgage rates and the broader economic backdrop don't move in a straight line. Global events, labour market data, and the Bank of Canada's rate decisions all play a role, and the picture can shift from one announcement to the next.

What This Means If You're Thinking About Buying or Selling

For buyers, a quieter market with more active listings generally means a little more breathing room — fewer bidding wars, more time to do your homework, and more negotiating leverage than we've seen in recent years.

For sellers, especially on the Island where prices have held up better than the provincial average, it's less about panic and more about pricing realistically and presenting well. Homes that are priced to reflect current conditions are still moving; it's the ones priced for 2022 that tend to sit.

Either way, the best move is usually the same: understand what's actually happening in your specific neighbourhood, not just the provincial headline.

If you'd like a read on how this all plays out in your corner of the South Island — Greater Victoria, the Westshore, Sooke, or the Cowichan Valley — I'm always happy to chat. No pressure, just a real conversation about what the numbers mean for you.

Mike Doughty REALTOR® | RE/MAX Camosun 778-400-0475 | mike@mikedoughty.ca | www.southislandliving.ca

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA), "Sales Struggle Against a Weak Economy and Rising Mortgage Rates," June 11, 2026.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on June 10, 2026 — the fifth consecutive hold. Here's what it means for the Victoria and South Island real estate market.

Another Hold — But the Conversation Is Getting More Complicated

If you've been watching the Bank of Canada closely, yesterday's decision probably felt familiar: the overnight rate stayed put at 2.25% for the fifth consecutive time on June 10, 2026. No cuts. No hikes. Another pause. Money.ca

But here's the thing — this hold feels different from the previous four. The backdrop has shifted, and if you're thinking about buying, selling, or renewing a mortgage on the South Island, it's worth understanding why.

What's Driving the Hold

The Bank is essentially stuck navigating two competing forces pulling in opposite directions.

On one side, the Canadian economy is soft. Economic activity in Canada has been weak and uncertainty about U.S. trade policy persists. Business investment is down, government spending has pulled back, and housing activity has been sluggish. Not exactly the conditions that call for higher borrowing costs. TD

On the other side, inflation is creeping up — and the reason why matters. The war in Iran has effectively closed most of the Strait of Hormuz, stripping roughly 10 per cent of global oil supply from the market, causing West Texas Intermediate crude to surge from about US$75 to nearly US$100 a barrel. That kind of supply shock pushes headline inflation higher while simultaneously dragging on economic growth — a stagflationary squeeze that leaves the Bank with very little room to manoeuvre. Mortgage Sandbox

CPI inflation rose to 2.8% in April, largely in line with the Bank's expectations. The good news: core inflation remains around 2%, meaning higher energy costs haven't broadly spilled over into everyday prices — yet. The Bank is watching closely, and for now is choosing to look through the war's short-term impact on headline inflation.

Two-Way Risk: Cuts or Hikes Both on the Table

Here's what's new this announcement: Governor Tiff Macklem made it clear that the next move could go in either direction — a cut if U.S. tariffs escalate and hit the Canadian economy harder, or a hike if energy-driven inflation from the Middle East conflict becomes entrenched. Money.ca

That kind of explicit two-way language from a central bank governor is notable. It signals that the Bank is genuinely uncertain about what comes next — and that the economic picture could break either way depending on how the geopolitical situation evolves.

The current consensus among economists is that the Bank will hold at 2.25% through the rest of 2026, with a gradual move back toward 2.75% by end of 2027 if growth and inflation follow the current outlook. But if subsequent inflation data shows rapid price acceleration, a rate hike could be back on the table before that.

The next rate decision is July 15, 2026, when the Bank will also release its next full Monetary Policy Report — the first complete update to official growth and inflation projections since April.

What This Means for South Island Buyers and Sellers

In practical terms, another hold means mortgage rates aren't moving today. The prime rate remains at 4.45%, with the lowest available five-year variable rates still around 3.35%. Ratehub

For buyers, the holding pattern means the borrowing environment is stable for now — and that window may be narrower than it looks. For the first time this cycle, the Bank signalled explicitly that both cuts and hikes remain on the table depending on how trade and energy risks resolve. The era of falling rates that defined 2024–2025 appears to be over. Nesto

Victoria's housing market has seen the average home price ease slightly — down about 1.6% year-over-year to roughly $1,043,987. Combined with stable borrowing costs, this creates a genuinely interesting window for buyers who've been sitting on the fence waiting for either prices or rates to move further in their favour. Ratehub

For sellers, the continued hold provides predictability. Buyers aren't being priced out by sudden rate increases, and financing conditions remain workable. That said, a pronounced slowdown in population growth driven by changes in immigration policy is further constraining Canada's growth drivers, which means demand-side pressure on the South Island market is more muted than it was a few years ago. Pricing realistically matters more than ever. BCREA

The Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada is holding steady — but it's doing so in an increasingly uncertain environment. The Iran conflict, residual trade tensions with the U.S., and softening domestic growth have put the Bank in a genuinely difficult position. For now, the rate holds. But anyone making a real estate decision in the next six to twelve months should be planning for a range of scenarios, not a single outcome.

If you're curious how this rate environment affects your specific situation — whether you're buying your first home in Langford, upsizing in Saanich, or thinking about selling in the Cowichan Valley — I'm always happy to talk it through.

📞 778-400-0475 | mike@mikedoughty.ca | [southislandliving.ca]

[Internal link: Victoria Real Estate Market Update – May 2026] [Internal link: First-Time Home Buyers' Guide – South Vancouver Island]

The spring 2026 real estate market on Southern Vancouver Island is wide open — more inventory than we've seen in over a decade, and buyers holding the cards. Here's what the numbers mean for your neighbourhood.

The Inventory Shift That Changes Everything

Something meaningful happened in the Greater Victoria market this spring, and it's been building all year. At the end of May 2026, there were 4,029 active listings on the Victoria Real Estate Board MLS® — the highest inventory level in eleven years. That's an 8.6 percent jump from April alone, and 8.4 percent more than we saw at the same time last year.

When VREB Chair Fergus Kyne says "there's no more waiting — the spring market is here," he's not just talking about warmer weather. He's talking about a market that has fundamentally shifted in favour of buyers. More choice. More time to make decisions. More room to negotiate.

That's a big deal on an island where, not long ago, buyers were waiving subjects and writing offers the same afternoon they walked through the door.

What Sold in May — and What Didn't

Total sales across the VREB region came in at 713 properties in May 2026 — a healthy bump of 10.9 percent over April, but still 5.9 percent below May 2025. Spring momentum is real, but the year-over-year gap tells you buyers are being deliberate.

Breaking it down by property type:

Single-family homes led volume with 385 sales, down 4 percent from a year ago. The MLS® HPI benchmark price for a single-family home in the Victoria Core sits at $1,339,000 — essentially flat, up just 0.3 percent year over year and barely changed from April's $1,339,100. The market is holding value, but it's not running.

Condominiums saw the sharpest year-over-year sales decline, at -14.9 percent, with 188 units sold. Benchmark condo prices in the Victoria Core dropped 1.9 percent from a year ago to $551,400 — down from $558,300 in April. Condo sellers are feeling more pressure than any other segment right now.

Townhomes were the bright spot. 98 sold in May, up 8.9 percent from May 2025. The townhouse benchmark in the Core held at $836,800 — down slightly from April but resilient relative to the rest of the market. Townhomes continue to attract buyers who want more space than a condo but aren't quite ready to stretch to a detached home price.

A Closer Look — Victoria Core vs. Westshore vs. Peninsula

The VREB data breaks down benchmark prices by sub-market, and the variation is worth paying attention to.

For single-family homes:

The Victoria Core benchmark sits at $1,339,000 (essentially flat year-over-year). The Westshore — covering Langford, Colwood, View Royal and area — has softened more noticeably, with its benchmark at $1,028,100, down 2.8 percent from May 2025. The Peninsula (Saanich, North Saanich, Sidney) is the standout, rising 4.3 percent year over year to $1,292,000.

For condos, the picture is broadly softer across all zones, with the Westshore condo benchmark at $508,300 (down 1.1% year over year) and the Core at $551,400 (down 1.9%).

What the Sales-to-Active-Listings Ratio Tells Us

The sales-to-active-listings ratio — one of the clearest signals of market pressure — is sitting in the 17–28 percent range, which BCREA defines as a balanced market. Technically, neither buyers nor sellers has a strong edge in pricing pressure. But with inventory at eleven-year highs, buyers have practical advantages that the ratio alone doesn't fully capture: time, selection, and leverage on negotiation.

Sellers who understand this are pricing accordingly and getting deals done. Those who are anchoring to 2022 or 2023 values are watching their listings sit.

Vancouver Island Beyond Victoria — The VIREB Picture

For those of us with roots or eyes on communities north of the Malahat, the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB) numbers tell a complementary story.

VIREB recorded 768 unit sales across all property types in May 2026 — down just one per cent from a year ago. That's relative stability across a broad geography. Active listings board-wide were 4,585, up three per cent year over year.

In the Cowichan Valley, the single-family benchmark came in at $789,800 — essentially holding from May 2025, one of the more stable sub-markets on the Island. Townhouse sales across the VIREB area were a standout, up 33 percent year over year.

VIREB CEO Jason Yochim captured the mood well: the market is seeing activity on well-priced properties, including multiple-offer situations in some cases, while homes above market expectations are taking longer to sell. Buyers are measured. Sellers need to be realistic.

The Bottom Line for Southern Vancouver Island Buyers and Sellers This Spring

If you're buying, this is one of the better-positioned markets on Southern Vancouver Island in recent memory. Inventory is high, competition has eased, and there's room to be strategic.

If you're selling, the fundamentals are still sound — but presentation and pricing matter more than they have in years. As Chair Kyne put it, motivated sellers need to enter the market with competitive pricing and a clear-eyed understanding of what their property is worth right now, not two years ago.

The spring market is here. It just requires a different playbook than the one a lot of people remember.

Mike Doughty is a REALTOR® with RE/MAX Camosun serving Greater Victoria, the Westshore, Sooke, and the Cowichan Valley. For a conversation about what May's numbers mean for your specific situation, reach out directly.

📞 778-400-0475 | ✉️ mike@mikedoughty.ca | 🌐 www.southislandliving.ca

Data sources: Victoria Real Estate Board (VREB) May 2026 Statistics Package; Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB) May 2026 Monthly Statistics Package. MLS® HPI benchmark prices reflect data from the Victoria Core and VIREB board area.