A new BC government and a Bank of Canada rate hike landed in the same week. Here’s what it could mean for buyers and sellers in Greater Victoria and the Cowichan Valley.

It was quite a week to be paying attention to housing. British Columbia voted in a Conservative majority government, the first in nearly a century, and a few days later the Bank of Canada raised its rate for the first time in a while. If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just wondering what your home is worth, you’ve probably got questions.

At our Island sales meeting this week, we invited Vancouver REALTOR® Keith Roy to give us his read. Keith is a longtime industry voice and was a federal Conservative candidate in the last election, so he’s upfront that he leans one way. What follows is his take on where policy is likely headed, plus what I’m hearing from the Greater Victoria and Cowichan Valley side of things. These are predictions, not promises. Final results are still being tallied as mail-in ballots come in, and no government delivers everything it campaigns on.

First, the Bank of Canada Surprise

On October 28, the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 0.25% to 2.5%. The Bank pointed to stronger-than-expected growth and higher inflation, with high oil prices and new US tariffs pushing prices up. It expects inflation to reach about 3.5% by year-end and average 3% in 2027.

It’s a tricky balance. Canada has shed about 110,000 jobs over the past two months, and trade tension with the US hasn’t eased. The Bank says more increases could be needed but that it will proceed carefully. Markets had been bracing for several hikes, so the cautious tone may soften some of that.

For anyone with a variable-rate mortgage or a renewal coming up, this matters. Keith made a point I’ll be repeating to clients: only two things really move a housing market, more people and cheaper money. Cheaper money isn’t on the table right now. And he doesn’t expect a big jump in immigration-driven demand either, so the path to a stronger market runs through jobs, and specifically good-paying ones.

What Keith Expects From the New Government

Keith has spoken with several newly elected MLAs, and here’s what he expects, in his words and by his read.

Housing and Development

• Bill 44 repeal. He expects the provincial rules requiring extra zoning and multiplexes to be rolled back, with more control returning to local councils. Supporters of those rules argued they’d speed up new supply, so expect a real debate here.

• Building code changes. The platform talks about harmonizing the building code and overhauling the step code. Keith expects less red tape and a possible pause on step code acceleration.

• Tax relief on new homes. He thinks the government will look at removing PST and possibly GST on parts of new construction, which would be a big deal for builders sitting on inventory.

• No condo holding tax, and he doesn’t expect the government to go ahead with the federal-provincial condo purchase plan.

Taxes and Costs

• Higher personal exemption. The platform promised to lift the basic personal amount from roughly $13,000 to about $32,000, which Keith estimates is about $1,000 per person, or $2,000 for a couple, starting in the 2027 tax year.

• Senior property tax deferral. Expected to return, with lower interest rates.

• PST on property management. The planned expansion is expected to be cancelled.

• Speculation and vacancy tax. He expects it to stay but with no automatic increases.

Short-Term Rentals

Keith expects the provincial Airbnb restrictions to be eased, or at least loosened for major events and when a community’s vacancy rate rises past a set threshold. That could be relevant for Victoria’s event calendar and for resort-style communities around the Cowichan Valley.

Private Property Rights

He expects the government to repeal DRIPA, citing concerns about uncertainty around private property rights, and noted that lawyers in the Cowichan title case have signalled they’d be open to negotiating on private property. This is a big topic with strong views on all sides, and I’ll dig into it in a future post.

Will a Foreign Buyer Ban Change Your Sale Price?

A question came up about the federal foreign buyer ban, which is set to expire. Keith’s view: even if it goes, the provincial foreign buyers tax is still in place, and he doesn’t think it’ll change what a downtown Victoria condo sells for. It could help consumer confidence, though. His advice to clients who think this will rescue the market is a polite reality check.

So What Does This Mean for You?

Here’s my honest take from the Island:

• Buyers: Rates just went up, but policy changes could ease costs on new builds over time. Get pre-approved and stress-test your numbers.

• Sellers: Don’t count on a policy change or a rate move to lift your price overnight. Pricing realistically still wins.

• Investors and landlords: Rental and short-term rental rules may shift. Watch for details before making big moves.

Keith left us with one more thought I liked: whatever you were most worried about probably won’t happen exactly as feared, and there may be some good surprises too. Governments rarely do everything they promise.

Have questions about how this affects your plans in Victoria, the Westshore, or the Cowichan Valley? I’m always up for a coffee and a chat.

Mike Doughty | REALTOR® with RE/MAX Camosun
📞 778-400-0475 | ✉️ mike@mikedoughty.ca

After a lively summer, September brought a bit of a pause across British Columbia. Sales dipped, rate-hike chatter picked up, and buyers got a little cautious. But zoom out, and the big story is that most of the province is still in balanced territory.

Here’s the lay of the land, from the Okanagan to the Kootenays to our corner of the Island.

The Provincial Numbers

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reported 5,254 residential sales in September, down 8.9% from a year ago. The average price was $924,279, down 2.4%. Total sales dollar volume reached $4.9 billion, down 11%.

Sales ran about 25.8% below the ten-year September average. Year to date, BC has recorded 51,310 sales (down 5.9%) at an average price of $937,644 (down 1.1%).

BCREA’s Chief Economist, Brendon Ogmundson, tied the September softness to rising oil prices that sparked speculation about Bank of Canada rate hikes. His encouraging note is that inventory is easing on a monthly basis, which should help keep markets balanced.

Why Rates Are Back in the Spotlight

On September 2, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25%, its seventh straight hold. But it said upside risks to inflation have increased, pointing to high energy prices and new tariffs, and that it stands ready to adjust policy if needed.

A hold isn’t a hike, yet that language is enough to make buyers hesitate. The next decision is October 28, with an updated Monetary Policy Report. Fixed mortgage rates follow bond yields, which have been climbing, so the affordability conversation isn’t going away.

A Tale of Many Markets

BC isn’t one market; it’s a patchwork. A few snapshots from the September data:

• Greater Vancouver: 1,717 sales (down 7.8%), average price $1,228,759 (down 2.1%)

• Fraser Valley: 860 sales (down 5.1%), average price $958,641 (down 2.1%)

• Okanagan: 658 sales (down 12.7%), average price $753,392 (down 4%)

• Kamloops: 189 sales (down 14.9%), average price down 11%

• Kootenay: 253 sales (up 9.1%), average price up 1.5%

• BC Northern: 358 sales (down 2.7%), average price up 7.6%

• South Peace River: 41 sales (up 28.1%), average price up 14.4%

Province-wide, there were 43,940 active listings, down 4.3% from last year, and the sales-to-active-listings ratio was 12% (12.6% a year ago). That puts BC at the lower end of balanced, with the Lower Mainland sitting nearer the buyer-friendly side than the rest of the province.

Where the South Island Fits

Vancouver Island and Victoria both saw fewer sales than last September (down 14.6% and 17.2% respectively), with listings up a bit, a pattern that mirrors what we’re seeing in several BC markets. For the full local breakdown, including Greater Victoria and the Cowichan Valley, check out my September 2026 South Island market update.

Reporting note: BCREA’s Victoria and Vancouver Island sales figures differ from the local VREB and VIREB reports, so the totals in the linked local update may not match exactly.

What It Means for You

• If you’re buying: Slower sales and gentler prices in much of BC mean more breathing room. It’s a good time to do your homework and line up financing before the October 28 announcement.

• If you’re selling: Buyers are still out there, but they’re comparing carefully. Realistic pricing and good presentation count for more than ever.

• If you’re just curious: Totally fair. Stats like these are a compass, not a crystal ball, and every neighbourhood tells its own story.

Let’s Chat

Wondering how the big-picture numbers translate to your street, whether that’s in the Westshore, the Core or the Cowichan Valley? I’m always up for a coffee and a straight answer. Get in touch or explore more South Island market updates.

Sources: BCREA, “Most Markets Remain Balanced Amidst Mounting Headwinds” (October 14, 2026); Bank of Canada interest rate announcement (September 2, 2026). View the complete BCREA statistics release and detailed tables (PDF).

Mike Doughty is a fifth-generation Vancouver Islander and REALTOR® with RE/MAX Camosun serving Greater Victoria, the Westshore and the Cowichan Valley. Statistics are provided by BCREA and are subject to revision. MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Buying or selling a South Island home with unpermitted work? Here's what it means in Greater Victoria and the Cowichan Valley, and how to sort it out.

Picture this. You've found the one: a gorgeous Westshore home with a finished basement, or a Cowichan Valley place with a sweet addition out back. The price feels right. Then someone says the magic words: "We're not sure that was permitted."

If you're buying or selling anywhere on Southern Vancouver Island, you're in good company. Lots of homeowners from Sidney to Sooke and Duncan to Ladysmith have skipped the permit process at some point, and plenty of today's owners inherited the problem from someone else.

Growing up on the Island, and now helping neighbours buy and sell here, I hear one question again and again: "Should I pull a permit?" My answer is always a resounding yes, if one is required.

What Is Unpermitted Work?

Unpermitted work is any construction or renovation done without the permits required by the local municipality or regional district. The most common examples on the South Island are:

• Finished basements and illegal or unregistered suites

• Additions, sunrooms, and enclosed decks

• Garage conversions

• DIY electrical, plumbing, or gas work

• Structural changes, like removing walls

• Extra bedrooms that don't match the septic system (more on that below)

Permit rules differ from place to place. What needs a permit in Saanich may be handled differently in Langford, North Cowichan, or the Cowichan Valley Regional District. The only way to know for sure is to check with the local building department.

Why Do People Skip Permits?

Mostly money and hassle. Permits cost money, the work may need to be brought up to current code, and a finished space can bump up the property assessment. For someone planning to stay in their home forever, skipping the permit can seem harmless.

But the next owner inherits the consequences, and that's often when the problem surfaces.

The Risks for Buyers

A home with unpermitted work is a home with a bit of baggage. Sometimes it sells for less than a comparable permitted home, and sometimes it doesn't, which is why you need to know what you're getting into before you remove subjects.

You may inherit the problem

Once you own the home, the unpermitted work is yours. The municipality may ask you to apply for permits after the fact, which can mean drawings from a designer or engineer, opening up walls for inspection, and upgrades to meet current code. In some cases, local governments can also register a notice on title when there's a building bylaw contravention, which can complicate a future sale or refinance.

Insurance may not respond

If there's a fire, a flood, or an injury in an unpermitted part of the home, your insurer may push back on the claim. Talk to your insurance broker before you buy, not after.

Your lender may care

Lenders and insurers are connected, and unpermitted space can complicate financing or renewals. It's not common, but it's not something you want to discover at the worst possible time.

Neighbours can raise the issue

Most neighbours on the Island are fantastic. But a boundary dispute or a feud can turn into a call to the building department fast.

Secondary problems, especially with septic

This one is big in the Cowichan Valley and rural parts of the South Island. If an earlier owner added bedrooms without permits and the onsite septic system was designed for fewer, you could have a system that doesn't match the home. That can mean an expensive upgrade down the road. If the home is on septic, ask what the system was designed and filed for, and have the system inspected.

What Buyers Can Do

When you find unpermitted work on a home you love, you've got options:

1. Accept the risk and move forward. If the price reflects it and you're comfortable, you can plan to permit the work later. Many municipalities would rather you come forward and get it squared away.

2. Ask the seller to fix it. It doesn't hurt to ask, especially if the home has been sitting. Some sellers will do it, and others will offer a price adjustment instead.

3. Walk away. That's a perfectly valid choice. There are lots of homes on the South Island, and you'll find one without the baggage.

Do your homework early. Ask the municipality about the permit history on the property (many have online lookup or a file request process), review the Property Disclosure Statement carefully, and talk to your realtor and lawyer about any red flags before subjects come off.

Selling a Home With Unpermitted Work

If you're selling, here's the honest truth: don't hide it.

In BC, the general rule is "buyer beware," but there are important exceptions. Sellers can't misrepresent a property and must disclose known latent defects. If you fill out the Property Disclosure Statement, the answers need to be accurate. Hiding known unpermitted work is a quick route to a legal headache after closing.

Step 1: Find out what you've got

Look through your records and the municipal permit history to see what was permitted and what wasn't. If you bought the home recently, the previous owner's paperwork and your lawyer's file may help too.

Step 2: Decide your path

• Sell as-is with full disclosure. You may need to price accordingly, and some buyers will walk or won't qualify for financing.

• Legalize it first. Often this is the best long-term move, though it takes time and money.

How to Legalize Unpermitted Work

It's usually less scary than people expect. It takes time and effort, but it's not the end of the world. The general steps are:

1. Contact your local building department. Ask how they handle permits for work already completed. Each municipality has its own process.

2. Gather documentation. Photos, receipts, drawings, and any records of the work.

3. Bring in a professional if needed. For larger projects, that may be a designer, architect, or engineer who can assess the work and draw up what's needed to bring it into compliance.

4. Apply for the permit. Include your plans and supporting documents.

5. Complete any required upgrades. Sometimes inspectors will want walls opened up or work corrected.

6. Pass inspections. Depending on the project, that could mean electrical, plumbing, structural, and a final inspection.

Electrical and gas work is overseen separately by Technical Safety BC. Homeowners can sometimes pull permits for work on their own principal residence, but the work still has to meet code and pass inspection.

The costs vary widely depending on how extensive the work is and how much needs to be corrected. Get a clear picture of the numbers before deciding between legalizing and selling as-is.

What About Fines?

There's no one-size-fits-all answer. Some municipalities take a gentle approach to people who come forward, while others can be stricter. Calling your local building department with a general question is a good way to understand how they typically handle it.

Will a Home Inspector Catch It?

Not usually. Most home inspectors check the condition of the home, not its permit history. That's why permit research is a separate step you or your realtor should take.

What If the Seller Didn't Disclose?

If you've bought a home and discovered unpermitted work that wasn't disclosed, speak with a real estate lawyer promptly. Whether you have recourse depends on what was said, what was known, and whether it qualifies as a latent defect or misrepresentation.

Final Thoughts

Buying or selling a home with unpermitted work can be tricky, but it doesn't have to derail your plans. For sellers, legalizing is usually the best route. For buyers, go in with your eyes open, do your due diligence, and negotiate accordingly.

Are you buying or selling in Victoria, the Westshore, the Cowichan Valley, or anywhere on the South Island? I'm always happy to chat it through, no pressure.

Mike Doughty | RE/MAX Camosun
📞 778-400-0475 | ✉️ mike@mikedoughty.ca | 🌐 www.southislandliving.ca

This article is general information, not legal advice. Permit requirements vary by municipality, so always check with your local building department and consult a real estate lawyer for your situation.

Victoria's housing market tipped into buyer's market territory in September 2026. Here's what it means for buyers and sellers from Langford to the Cowichan Valley.

September 2026 Real Estate Market Update: Victoria & Cowichan Valley Shift Into Buyer's Market Territory

Fall has settled in across Southern Vancouver Island. The light is lower and the mornings are crisp, and the housing market has changed gears along with the season. September numbers from the Victoria Real Estate Board (VREB) and the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB) show more homes for sale than buyers to match, from Greater Victoria and the Westshore out to the Cowichan Valley.

Here's the story behind the stats.

Greater Victoria: Buyer's Market Territory for the First Time in Years

VREB reported 463 sales across all property types in September. That's 16.4% fewer than September 2025 and 21.7% fewer than August.

Meanwhile, 3,811 homes were actively listed at month-end, up 4.1% from August and 3.2% from a year ago.

VREB's sales-to-active-listings ratio helps explain the shift. Below 17%, the market leans toward buyers. Between 17% and 28% it's balanced, and above 28% it favours sellers. September's ratio slipped to roughly 15%, down from around 20% in August.

VREB Chair Fergus Kyne said this is the first buyer's market in Victoria since January 2015, if you set aside the early pandemic months. He was careful to add that one month isn't a trend, and I agree. We'll watch October and November closely.

What sold in Greater Victoria

• Single-family homes: 239 sold, down 17.3% from last September

• Condos: 137 sold, down 11%

• Townhomes: 53 sold, down 26.4%

Where prices landed

MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) benchmark prices are the most reliable gauge of price direction because they smooth out the month-to-month swings in averages and medians.

• Single-family, Greater Victoria: $1,150,300 (down 1.5% from last year)

• Single-family, Victoria Core: $1,280,100 (down 2.0%)

• Single-family, Westshore: $1,019,800 (down 1.2%)

• Condo, Greater Victoria: $542,800 (up 0.3%)

• Townhouse, Greater Victoria: $774,000 (down 1.1%)

Prices are drifting, not tumbling. The Peninsula condo market stands out, with its benchmark up 3.4% year over year to $639,900.

The Cowichan Valley: A Quieter Month, Same Message

South of the Malahat the story is similar, and the Valley's numbers are a little softer. VIREB logged 562 sales across the whole board area (all property types), down 13% from last year. Active listings rose 4% to 4,457, and VIREB's CEO described the Island as having moved into buyer's market territory.

In Zone 3 (Cowichan Valley):

• 46 single-family homes sold in September, down from 57 in August and 62 a year ago

• The average single-family sale price was $778,119, with a median of $761,250

• The single-family benchmark price was $774,300, down 1.1% from September 2025

• The apartment benchmark was $298,200, down 6.5% from last year

• The townhouse benchmark was $514,100, up 0.3% year over year

Single-family figures from VIREB exclude acreage and waterfront. If you're eyeing a Shawnigan Lake waterfront home or a hobby farm outside Duncan, those properties follow their own rhythm and deserve a one-on-one look.

What This Means If You're Buying

Choice is back. More listings means more time to compare, more room to negotiate, and less pressure to decide in a weekend. Chair Kyne also noted that inventory typically thins out heading into winter, so September's selection may not last. A few ideas:

• Get your financing pre-approval current so you can move when the right place appears

• Compare across the whole South Island. A Westshore townhome, a Core condo and a Cowichan Valley detached home can price very differently

• Ask about conditions, possession dates and seller credits, since all three are more negotiable now than they have been in a while

What This Means If You're Selling

Selling is still very doable. It just rewards a realistic price from day one. VIREB's CEO put it plainly: well-priced homes keep moving, and sellers need to focus on where the market is today, not where it was a few years ago. Your neighbour's spring sale is a data point, but your home's value this October is what counts.

The Bottom Line

Greater Victoria and the Cowichan Valley are both moving at a slower, more buyer-friendly pace, with benchmark prices mostly flat to slightly lower. Nothing here says "panic," and it does say "pay attention." Whether you're planning a move this fall or just keeping an eye on your biggest investment, I'm happy to chat about what's happening on your street.

Thinking about a move on the South Island? Let's have a no-pressure conversation. Reach out at mike@mikedoughty.ca or 778-400-0475.

Sources: Victoria Real Estate Board, September 2026 Statistics Package (vreb.org/current-statistics); Vancouver Island Real Estate Board, September 2026 Monthly Statistics Package (vireb.com). Mike Doughty is a REALTOR® with RE/MAX Camosun. MLS® and REALTOR® are trademarks of The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). This post is for general information and is not financial or legal advice.