Victoria's housing market tipped into buyer's market territory in September 2026. Here's what it means for buyers and sellers from Langford to the Cowichan Valley.
September 2026 Real Estate Market Update: Victoria & Cowichan Valley Shift Into Buyer's Market Territory
Fall has settled in across Southern Vancouver Island. The light is lower and the mornings are crisp, and the housing market has changed gears along with the season. September numbers from the Victoria Real Estate Board (VREB) and the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB) show more homes for sale than buyers to match, from Greater Victoria and the Westshore out to the Cowichan Valley.
Here's the story behind the stats.
Greater Victoria: Buyer's Market Territory for the First Time in Years
VREB reported 463 sales across all property types in September. That's 16.4% fewer than September 2025 and 21.7% fewer than August.
Meanwhile, 3,811 homes were actively listed at month-end, up 4.1% from August and 3.2% from a year ago.
VREB's sales-to-active-listings ratio helps explain the shift. Below 17%, the market leans toward buyers. Between 17% and 28% it's balanced, and above 28% it favours sellers. September's ratio slipped to roughly 15%, down from around 20% in August.
VREB Chair Fergus Kyne said this is the first buyer's market in Victoria since January 2015, if you set aside the early pandemic months. He was careful to add that one month isn't a trend, and I agree. We'll watch October and November closely.
What sold in Greater Victoria
Single-family homes: 239 sold, down 17.3% from last September
Condos: 137 sold, down 11%
Townhomes: 53 sold, down 26.4%
Where prices landed
MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) benchmark prices are the most reliable gauge of price direction because they smooth out the month-to-month swings in averages and medians.
Single-family, Greater Victoria: $1,150,300 (down 1.5% from last year)
Single-family, Victoria Core: $1,280,100 (down 2.0%)
Single-family, Westshore: $1,019,800 (down 1.2%)
Condo, Greater Victoria: $542,800 (up 0.3%)
Townhouse, Greater Victoria: $774,000 (down 1.1%)
Prices are drifting, not tumbling. The Peninsula condo market stands out, with its benchmark up 3.4% year over year to $639,900.
The Cowichan Valley: A Quieter Month, Same Message
South of the Malahat the story is similar, and the Valley's numbers are a little softer. VIREB logged 562 sales across the whole board area (all property types), down 13% from last year. Active listings rose 4% to 4,457, and VIREB's CEO described the Island as having moved into buyer's market territory.
In Zone 3 (Cowichan Valley):
46 single-family homes sold in September, down from 57 in August and 62 a year ago
The average single-family sale price was $778,119, with a median of $761,250
The single-family benchmark price was $774,300, down 1.1% from September 2025
The apartment benchmark was $298,200, down 6.5% from last year
The townhouse benchmark was $514,100, up 0.3% year over year
Single-family figures from VIREB exclude acreage and waterfront. If you're eyeing a Shawnigan Lake waterfront home or a hobby farm outside Duncan, those properties follow their own rhythm and deserve a one-on-one look.
What This Means If You're Buying
Choice is back. More listings means more time to compare, more room to negotiate, and less pressure to decide in a weekend. Chair Kyne also noted that inventory typically thins out heading into winter, so September's selection may not last. A few ideas:
Get your financing pre-approval current so you can move when the right place appears
Compare across the whole South Island. A Westshore townhome, a Core condo and a Cowichan Valley detached home can price very differently
Ask about conditions, possession dates and seller credits, since all three are more negotiable now than they have been in a while
What This Means If You're Selling
Selling is still very doable. It just rewards a realistic price from day one. VIREB's CEO put it plainly: well-priced homes keep moving, and sellers need to focus on where the market is today, not where it was a few years ago. Your neighbour's spring sale is a data point, but your home's value this October is what counts.
The Bottom Line
Greater Victoria and the Cowichan Valley are both moving at a slower, more buyer-friendly pace, with benchmark prices mostly flat to slightly lower. Nothing here says "panic," and it does say "pay attention." Whether you're planning a move this fall or just keeping an eye on your biggest investment, I'm happy to chat about what's happening on your street.
Thinking about a move on the South Island? Let's have a no-pressure conversation. Reach out at mike@mikedoughty.ca or 778-400-0475.
Sources: Victoria Real Estate Board, September 2026 Statistics Package (vreb.org/current-statistics); Vancouver Island Real Estate Board, September 2026 Monthly Statistics Package (vireb.com). Mike Doughty is a REALTOR® with RE/MAX Camosun. MLS® and REALTOR® are trademarks of The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). This post is for general information and is not financial or legal advice.