Sales in Greater Victoria climbed 12.6% in August 2026 as steady momentum carried into fall, though rising bond yields could cool things heading into winter. See what it means for South Island buyers and sellers.
Greater Victoria's real estate market keeps its footing heading into fall
There's a certain rhythm to real estate on the South Island — the spring rush, the summer lull around the lake, and then that late-August shift when everyone comes back from the cabin, the kids head back to school, and buyers and sellers start paying attention again. This August, that rhythm held steady, and then some.
According to the Victoria Real Estate Board, 591 properties changed hands across the region in August 2026 — up 12.6 per cent from the 525 sales recorded in August 2025. It was a touch quieter than July, as it usually is once summer winds down, but year-over-year the numbers tell a clear story: buyers are active, and they've been active all season.
A market with more confidence than it's had in years
VREB Chair Fergus Kyne put it simply: sales activity in August was the strongest the region has seen in five years. That's a meaningful marker for anyone who's been watching this market cautiously over the past couple of seasons.
Both single family homes and condos posted solid year-over-year gains:
Single family homes: 309 sold, up 15.3 per cent from August 2025
Condominiums: 175 sold, up 15.1 per cent from August 2025
Townhomes: 63 sold, down 4.5 per cent from August 2025 — the one segment that cooled slightly
What's notable isn't just that more homes sold — it's that they sold into a market with genuinely healthy inventory. There were 3,662 active listings at the end of August, giving buyers real choice rather than the frantic, offer-in-24-hours conditions we saw a few years back.
Independent market analyst Leo Spalteholz, who tracks seasonally adjusted trends at House Hunt Victoria, notes that sales activity is now sitting about 16 per cent above the low point hit back in January — a slow, steady climb rather than a sudden surge. He also points out that with inventory continuing to tighten a little each month, the overall market balance has nudged slightly further toward sellers than it was in July, though only modestly.
Prices are holding, not spiking — with condos still the soft spot
If you're picturing a runaway market, that's not quite what's happening here. The MLS® Home Price Index — which smooths out the month-to-month noise of average and median prices — shows a genuinely balanced picture in the Victoria Core:
Single family benchmark: $1,301,800, down slightly (0.6%) from a year ago
Condo benchmark: $553,600, up modestly (0.9%) from a year ago
That's the kind of steadiness that tends to reward patient buyers and realistic sellers alike. Worth noting, though: Spalteholz's analysis flags that the region's condo median price has slipped to its lowest level since December 2022, and that segment continues to lag well behind the detached home market in relative strength. If a condo is on your radar, that softness is worth factoring into your strategy — whether you're buying or selling.
As Chair Kyne noted, the current inventory gives buyers room to shop around and compare — but it also means sellers need to be sharp about pricing and presentation. Homes that are priced right and show well are still moving quickly; the ones that aren't are sitting.
A cloud on the horizon: rising bond yields
Here's the part worth keeping an eye on. Fixed mortgage rates — which make up the majority of new borrowing — track bond yields, and those yields have been climbing steadily all year. They're now at their highest point in over two years. The last time we saw a run-up like this, back in fall 2023, it noticeably cooled the market as some buyers found themselves priced out of qualifying. We're not at that level yet, but the direction of travel is one reason activity could soften a bit heading into the colder months.
What this means if you're thinking about a move
Whether you're eyeing a character home in Fairfield, a condo near the Inner Harbour, or something with a bit more land out toward the Westshore, this kind of balanced market rewards preparation. Buyers have breathing room to make thoughtful decisions instead of panicked ones — and with borrowing costs potentially ticking upward, locking in your financing sooner rather than later isn't a bad idea. Sellers who understand exactly where their home sits relative to comparable listings — not just what they hope it's worth — are the ones landing strong offers.
If you're weighing a move anywhere across the South Island this fall, I'm always happy to walk through what these numbers mean for your specific street, your specific home, or your specific plans. No pressure, just a conversation.